Februaury 2023: Building Momentum: How Buyers Sparked a Strong Start to the Year
January has been an interesting month. Despite many warning signs of an impending recession, the global stock market managed to rise by just over 6% during the period. So, what is driving the recent upward swing in stock prices? This week we’d like to peak behind the current and show you the source of the […]
December 2022: A New Dawn of Progress: Why the World’s Most Powerful Innovations Are Still Ahead
This year has been challenging and not just in financial markets. The major mood in the world seems to be one of exhaustion and fear. That is understandable given all that’s happened during 2022. Some of the more depressing items of the year include: the war in Ukraine, the fall of Afghanistan, the assassination of […]
November 2022: Positioning for Strength: Opportunities Emerging as Consumers Rebalance
This week we want to briefly review how the consumer is holding up in a weakening economy with high inflation. The best way to get a sense for the consumer’s health is by looking at retail revenue growth and credit card spending. […]
October 2022: From Turbulence to Takeoff: Why the Next Big Move Could Be Up
Over the last few weeks, many people have asked us, “When do you think the stock market will bottom?” We usually avoid these types of questions, as answering them implies a level of foresight that humans just don’t generally possess. However, this week we’ll attempt to give you a glimpse into the types of information we […]
September 2022: A Measured Outlook: Navigating Volatility with Discipline and Valuation Insight
This week we thought we’d better discuss the stock market and our latest thinking. In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 10% (as of this writing) and is back down to the lows for the year last reached in mid-June. Year-to-date (ytd), the S&P 500 has declined by almost 22%. […]
September 2022: Market Update: Stocks, Earnings, and Fair Value
This week we thought we’d better discuss the stock market and our latest thinking. In the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 10% (as of this writing) and is back down to the lows for the year last reached in mid-June. Year-to-date (ytd), the S&P 500 has declined by almost 22%. […]
September 2022: Private Credit Holds Steady in Volatile Markets
So far, 2022 has been the worst year for fixed income markets since the Great Depression. The US Aggregate Bond Index (our fixed income benchmark) has lost 10.75% through August with the Global Aggregate Bond Index down 20.4%. Fortunately, our large allocations to Private Real Estate (+7.4% ytd return) and Private Credit (+1.1% ytd return) […]
July 2022: How Rates Impact Stocks and Bonds
There has been much discussion in the market this year regarding the rise in interest rates. It can be seen almost everywhere – The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage, which started 2022 at 3.11%, hit a high of 5.81% in June and currently sits at 5.51%. The 10-year US Treasury started the year at 1.51% […]
July 2022: Stocks, Bonds, and the Fed
Well, the first half of 2022 is in the books and for the broad financial markets and for passive investors it has been an absolute disaster. The most widely followed US Large Cap Stock index—the S&P 500—put up the second worst start since the Great Depression. Usually when stock markets are doing so poorly, bond […]
June 2022: Valuations and Long-Term Returns
This week I want to jump into the weeds with you and outline our current thinking on the stock market. On May 13th, I wrote: “The S&P 500 is now trading at 17.3x 2022 estimated eps vs its historical average forward P/E ratio of 16.7x. Analysts have increased their full year earnings estimate to 228. […]