August 2025: A New Market Reset Takes Shape
August has opened with a bang, with stock markets selling off and fear reasserting itself in financial markets. Today we want to share some context for today’s sell off. In technical analysis, there is this concept of “Overbought or Oversold”. Overbought refers to a situation in financial markets where the price has risen rapidly to […]
June 2025: Record Highs, Real Questions
The Global Stock Markets regained all-time high levels this week. In just a little over two and a half months, investors have gone from utter fear and panic, pushing markets down 20% to euphoria and new record levels. Just another in a long list of such examples, that it doesn’t pay to invest based on […]
May 2025: Navigating Volatility: Recent Portfolio Adjustments
This week we’ll discuss the recent changes we made to the public equity holdings in portfolios, but first a quick review of the wild month of April. From April 1st to today, May 2nd, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.7%. Let that sink in. The US Large Cap Stock Index is now down just […]
April 2025: Private Investments, Public Misconceptions
We continue to see a lot of misinformation about private investments so let’s try to separate fact from fiction. Last week an article was published in the Wall Street Journal that criticized private investments with a lot of misinformation. Coincidentally, I was giving a lecture at the Eller Business School at The University of Arizona […]
April 2025: Understanding the Tariff End Game
This week we are going to discuss the “End Game” for the Trump tariff policies, but first we’ll provide some context for what is happening in various financial markets. Financial Markets The S&P 500 Index is down 17% from its recent peak and down 13% year to date. Over the last three years, it […]
March 2025: Why Private Equity, Why Now
This week we want to outline the investment case for making an allocation to Private Equity in client portfolios. Over the past four years, we have invested in Private Credit and Private Real Estate markets but have avoided Private Equity based on our view that publicly traded stocks would outperform their private counterparts. That […]
February 2025: Looking Past the Pullback
As I write this note, the MSCI World Stock Market Index is down 3% from its all-time highs. For some reason, that has caused panic among investors. Year-to-date, the global stock market is up 1.6%. So, this week, we’d like to address the current state of fear and discuss whether it is justified. First we […]
February 2025: What Consumer Inflation Fears May Be Missing
Today was a tough day on Wall Street, but the market is basically back to where it was 10 days ago. So instead of addressing the stock sell off today, we’d like to discuss the outlook for inflation. The latest University of Michigan Survey of Consumers came out today with some worrying data on inflation. […]
January 2025: Earnings Hold Up Markets Amid AI, Fed, and Tariff Shocks
This week was full of bombshell announcements which spiked volatility and had investors rethinking many core assumptions. If you haven’t been paying attention here are a few of the major news items that rattled markets: Monday morning the world woke up to a renewed focus on the global AI war with the advent of DeepSeek. This […]