May 2026: Looking Beyond Consumer Sentiment
Currently, the news is full of articles proclaiming economic turmoil and forecasting recession. Just this month, we’ve noted stories on rising inflation, gas price shocks, frozen home sales, increasing unemployment and record consumer debt defaults. Yet, despite all of these negative data points, the stock market continues to surge higher. This week we’d like to […]
May 2026: The Summer Volatility Question
This week, the stock market again hit new all-time highs due to strong corporate earnings reports. Since the Iran War began, we’ve been saying that investors would look past the conflict after the initial emotional reaction and refocus on strong earnings reports. But what will happen as earnings season ends? In the next few weeks, […]
April 2026: Why Markets Are Refocusing on Fundamentals
Over the last ten days, the stock market has rallied on hopes of a quick end to the Iran conflict and optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected in spite of rising inflation due to higher oil prices. Since March 30th, the S&P 500 is up 7.5% and is now down […]
March 2026: Private Credit Under the Microscope
This week we wanted to focus on private credit, which has faced a difficult few months in the press. As you know, we have private credit exposure that we continue to believe is well positioned. That said, when an asset class we own comes under this much skepticism, we feel it’s worth re-examining the evidence. […]
March 2026: When Geopolitics Meets Inflation
This week we’ll address the elephant in the room – Iran. As we predicted last week, the US attack on Iran has produced a lot of volatility with a corresponding surge in oil prices. US stock market volatility increased by almost 30% this week and Brent Oil prices have increased 21%. On Sunday night, Goldman […]
February 2026: The Dollar, Interest Rates, and International Tailwinds
This week we want to address the narrative of a US Dollar collapse. Last year the USD declined from 110 to 98 (an 11% decline in value versus the broad currency basket). This decline has a group of people warning of an imminent collapse in the US Dollar. We agree that the US Dollar will […]
January 2026: When Leverage Unwinds: Lessons From the Precious Metals Crash
If you don’t know, today Gold (-10%), Silver (-27%) and Platinum (-18%) experienced a spectacular crash event. These were the largest single day price drops we can remember in precious metals markets and appear to us, to be targeted attacks on leveraged speculators. We estimate total losses today in these markets at nearly 5.5 Trillion […]
January 2026: Venezuela, Oil Markets, and the Limits of Supply
This week we want to discuss the Venezuelan Oil Industry. Since the US strike on Venezuela, WTI oil prices are up about $2 (3.5%) to $59.70. Some pundits are hailing this latest development as a boon for the US and a major loss for China. We don’t believe that Venezuelan oil is that important to […]
October 2025: Why Legacy RMBS Remains Attractive in Portfolios
This week we wanted to focus on an investment in your portfolio — our position in legacy RMBS. What exactly are legacy RMBS? Legacy Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) are bonds backed by pools of residential mortgage loans, where investors receive payments from the principal and interest paid by homeowners on these mortgages. Think of RMBS […]
September 2025: Market Rally Backed by Fundamentals
The Global Stock Market ended the week up 14.7% year-to-date. So far this year, international stock markets (+24.8%) are outperforming the S&P 500 (+11.5%). Since the bottom of the Trump Tariff Panic in April, the Global Stock Market has rallied 35.6% to new all-time highs. Many pundits are now citing weakening employment and high valuation […]