February 2026: The Dollar, Interest Rates, and International Tailwinds
This week we want to address the narrative of a US Dollar collapse. Last year the USD declined from 110 to 98 (an 11% decline in value versus the broad currency basket). This decline has a group of people warning of an imminent collapse in the US Dollar. We agree that the US Dollar will […]
January 2026: When Leverage Unwinds: Lessons From the Precious Metals Crash
If you don’t know, today Gold (-10%), Silver (-27%) and Platinum (-18%) experienced a spectacular crash event. These were the largest single day price drops we can remember in precious metals markets and appear to us, to be targeted attacks on leveraged speculators. We estimate total losses today in these markets at nearly 5.5 Trillion […]
January 2026: Venezuela, Oil Markets, and the Limits of Supply
This week we want to discuss the Venezuelan Oil Industry. Since the US strike on Venezuela, WTI oil prices are up about $2 (3.5%) to $59.70. Some pundits are hailing this latest development as a boon for the US and a major loss for China. We don’t believe that Venezuelan oil is that important to […]
October 2025: Why Legacy RMBS Remains Attractive in Portfolios
This week we wanted to focus on an investment in your portfolio — our position in legacy RMBS. What exactly are legacy RMBS? Legacy Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) are bonds backed by pools of residential mortgage loans, where investors receive payments from the principal and interest paid by homeowners on these mortgages. Think of RMBS […]
September 2025: Market Rally Backed by Fundamentals
The Global Stock Market ended the week up 14.7% year-to-date. So far this year, international stock markets (+24.8%) are outperforming the S&P 500 (+11.5%). Since the bottom of the Trump Tariff Panic in April, the Global Stock Market has rallied 35.6% to new all-time highs. Many pundits are now citing weakening employment and high valuation […]
August 2025: A New Market Reset Takes Shape
August has opened with a bang, with stock markets selling off and fear reasserting itself in financial markets. Today we want to share some context for today’s sell off. In technical analysis, there is this concept of “Overbought or Oversold”. Overbought refers to a situation in financial markets where the price has risen rapidly to […]
June 2025: Record Highs, Real Questions
The Global Stock Markets regained all-time high levels this week. In just a little over two and a half months, investors have gone from utter fear and panic, pushing markets down 20% to euphoria and new record levels. Just another in a long list of such examples, that it doesn’t pay to invest based on […]
May 2025: Navigating Volatility: Recent Portfolio Adjustments
This week we’ll discuss the recent changes we made to the public equity holdings in portfolios, but first a quick review of the wild month of April. From April 1st to today, May 2nd, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.7%. Let that sink in. The US Large Cap Stock Index is now down just […]
April 2025: Private Investments, Public Misconceptions
We continue to see a lot of misinformation about private investments so let’s try to separate fact from fiction. Last week an article was published in the Wall Street Journal that criticized private investments with a lot of misinformation. Coincidentally, I was giving a lecture at the Eller Business School at The University of Arizona […]
April 2025: Understanding the Tariff End Game
This week we are going to discuss the “End Game” for the Trump tariff policies, but first we’ll provide some context for what is happening in various financial markets. Financial Markets The S&P 500 Index is down 17% from its recent peak and down 13% year to date. Over the last three years, it […]