September 2026: Higher Rates Do Not Tell the Whole Story
This week we want to discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates and what it may mean for stocks. On Wednesday, the Fed unanimously increased its benchmark interest rate by one quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%–4%. Inflation remains elevated, but the Fed also described an economy expanding at a solid pace, […]
August 2026: A Fed Pause Doesn’t Mean One Path for Interest Rates
This week we want to discuss interest rates and, more specifically, why a Federal Reserve pause does not necessarily mean that all interest rates are about to decline. At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Since then, several economic reports have given the Fed more reason […]
July 2026: Beyond Demand, The Economics Driving AI Growth
This week, investors received an important update on the artificial intelligence investment boom. Alphabet reported outstanding second-quarter operating results. Total revenue increased 24%, Google Cloud revenue increased 82%, and the company’s operating margin expanded from 32% to 34%. Yet, the stock fell nearly 7% the following day. Why would investors punish a company for reporting […]
July 2026: High Expectations, Higher Bar
This week we want to talk about earnings. That may sound less exciting than the other stories investors have been following recently. Over the past several weeks, markets have had plenty to digest: geopolitical risk, oil-price volatility, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, artificial intelligence, and questions about whether the economy is slowing. Those issues all […]
May 2026: Looking Beyond Consumer Sentiment
Currently, the news is full of articles proclaiming economic turmoil and forecasting recession. Just this month, we’ve noted stories on rising inflation, gas price shocks, frozen home sales, increasing unemployment and record consumer debt defaults. Yet, despite all of these negative data points, the stock market continues to surge higher. This week we’d like to […]
May 2026: The Summer Volatility Question
This week, the stock market again hit new all-time highs due to strong corporate earnings reports. Since the Iran War began, we’ve been saying that investors would look past the conflict after the initial emotional reaction and refocus on strong earnings reports. But what will happen as earnings season ends? In the next few weeks, […]
April 2026: Why Markets Are Refocusing on Fundamentals
Over the last ten days, the stock market has rallied on hopes of a quick end to the Iran conflict and optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as expected in spite of rising inflation due to higher oil prices. Since March 30th, the S&P 500 is up 7.5% and is now down […]
March 2026: Private Credit Under the Microscope
This week we wanted to focus on private credit, which has faced a difficult few months in the press. As you know, we have private credit exposure that we continue to believe is well positioned. That said, when an asset class we own comes under this much skepticism, we feel it’s worth re-examining the evidence. […]
March 2026: When Geopolitics Meets Inflation
This week we’ll address the elephant in the room – Iran. As we predicted last week, the US attack on Iran has produced a lot of volatility with a corresponding surge in oil prices. US stock market volatility increased by almost 30% this week and Brent Oil prices have increased 21%. On Sunday night, Goldman […]
February 2026: The Dollar, Interest Rates, and International Tailwinds
This week we want to address the narrative of a US Dollar collapse. Last year the USD declined from 110 to 98 (an 11% decline in value versus the broad currency basket). This decline has a group of people warning of an imminent collapse in the US Dollar. We agree that the US Dollar will […]